I made this the day after the PA primaries, when all the media was hyping up Hillary's 'bi
I made this the day after the PA primaries, when all the media was hyping up Hillary's 'big win'. Of course, now it's old news, but she still hasnt dropped out!
Original description...
First off, as a side note, I want to point out that there was nothing even remotely surprising about Hillary's PA win. If anything was surprising, it's how mediocre her win turned out to be. Just like Ohio and Texas, the media makes a big deal about it as if there's a new momentum shift, when in reality these are states that Hillary was always a HUGE favorite in. Let's be clear about something: Hillary only got a single-digit win in PA (9.2%), despite what the mathematically challenged media has been saying, and she was up by as much as 20% in a lot of earlier polls. So Hillary is right, the tides are turning. Just not in her favor. This was her last big chance to make a dent in Obama's lead. It just didn't happen.
Now, let's look at what's left...
If we take the average of all the leading state polls (Ramussen, Insider Advantage, Mason Dixon, American Research Group, etc, etc), the breakdown will go something like this (and these are very conservative numbers to give Hillary the benefit of the doubt)...
Indiana: Hillary wins by 10 points
North Carolina: Obama wins by 10 points
West Virginia: Hillary wins by 20 points
Kentucky: Hillary wins by 32 points
Oregon: Obama wins by 10 points
Montana: Obama wins by 12 points
Puerto Rico: Hillary wins by 20 points
Guam: Roughly a tie (not enough data)
See: http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/
If we apply these estimates proportionally to the popular delegates at stake (there are only 408 left), then the net result over the remaining contests means Hillary will move closer to Obama's score by around 22 points. Which is peanuts, because today she's down by around 128 points!
128 down + 22 net earned = 106 deficit at the end
Yes, this means that if these predictions are even closely in line (in reality, many polls give Obama as much as a 20-point margin in North Carolina!), then Obama will end up with a 106-point lead after all the remaining primaries are finished.
In this scenario, since there are about 303 super delegates left to be had, Hillary would need 68% of them just to muster up more points than Obama. But this still wouldn't give her the needed delegates to win (a candidate needs 2,024). To reach the 2,024 threshold, Hillary would need around 73% of the remaining super delegates. Ouch!
On the other hand, the Obama scenario (him just hanging on and getting around 40% of the super delegates) would put him over the 2,024 threshold with ease. No sweat.
Hillary and her team are perfectly aware of this math. So why are they still running? It's obvious. Because they're hoping they can shit on the millions of voters that showed up at the ballot box and, instead, cuddle up with the super delegates in hopes to sway more than TWO THIRDS of them to vote for her. Legal? Yes. Democratic? No. I think it's obvious what would happen to the Democratic Party if this scenario were to happen. People would be furious, and rightfully so. People would lose faith in the Democratic Party and vote in protest.
Hillary has proven she will say and do ANYTHING -- including running the slimiest fear-mongering ad campaigns we've ever seen -- to get her crooked, power-hungry ass back into the White House.
This is the kind of crap everyday people like myself are sick and tired of. If Hillary has any small drop of dignity left in her, she would respectfully bow out now. Because of pure selfishness and zealous ego, she's destroying the hopes of the Democrats in November.
I'm not voting Obama because I think he's done anything special, or because he's experienced, or because I think he is the best choice. I'm voting Obama because he's honest, he's straightforward, he's consistent in his discourse, and he represents a genuine change from the Washington bullshit. Obama's my nigga!
It's over Hillary. Get the f*ck out!!!
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I destroy crappy videos with my venomous comments. Get out of my way and watch me operate
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