Metaculus

Metaculus is a forecasting technology platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. Research shows that with the right incentives and feedback, groups of people can make remarkably accurate predictions of the probability of future events. Enabling this capacity is the aim of Metaculus.

It is often assumed that events within such systems are simply unpredictable. But they aren’t. Of all the numerical ranges that Metaculus has forecast, 94% were more accurate than random guessing. You can see the Metaculus track record across all questions since 2015.